In the first quarter of 2018, China's polypropylene
market as a whole showed a turbulent weakening trend. Except for the first half of January, the market continued its fourth quarter's gains, and the rest of the time was dominated by the following trend. Taking the market in East China as an example, the mainstream price of drawing materials at the beginning of January was 9,300 yuan / ton. As of March 20, the mainstream price of drawing materials fell to 8,600 yuan / ton, a drop of 7.53%. Specifically:
Since the beginning of 2018, the domestic PP market trend in the first half of January continued the fourth quarter of last year's gains. PP futures continued to rise, reaching the highest point of 9695. In addition, oil prices and methanol continued to operate at high levels, and petrochemical prices rose in turn, driving the PP spot market to fluctuate. Upstream. With the advent of the middle of the month, PP futures fell slightly and the market's gains were suspended. By the end of January, as the PP futures entered a trend of stagnation, the market at the end of the month was mainly to maintain stability. In February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the market fluctuated and the festive atmosphere was strong. Terminal manufacturers have left the market one after another, coupled with the suspension of logistics, the futures trend is not good, although the market has quotations, but the downstream procurement enthusiasm is reduced. After the holiday, the two oil stocks accumulated, breaking through the 1 million tons mark, which was in the high level in the past year. Most of the downstream manufacturers have not yet entered the market, and the rate of return to work is low. The market players are waiting to see a strong atmosphere, the offer is weak, and the trading atmosphere is not good.
In March, the domestic polypropylene market continued to decline due to multiple negative factors such as high petrochemical stocks, weak futures and weak downstream demand. As of March 20, PP futures fell to 8605 and hit a new low. PP futures closed with a negative line with a long shadow, indicating that the support below is strong. However, the current price is suppressed by multiple moving averages above, and the MACD green column is still long. On the other hand, the current PP profit of oil is compressed to less than 1,500 yuan / ton, the profit of coal-based PP is reduced to less than 1,000 yuan / ton, and the methanol-made PP has even begun to suffer losses. At present, the overall profit of PP is at a low level, and the space for continued decline is limited. . Therefore, in summary, it is expected that the market outlook will remain dominated by bearishness, but the downside is expected to be limited.
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